This project developed computer models to estimate the value for money of interventions for cardiovascular diseases and dementia, and the impact these interventions on healthcare demand.
April 2014 - March 2017
Modelling preventative interventions to address inequalities in chronic disease
Research Team: Professor Simon Capewell, Professor Peter Diggle, Professor Martin O’Flaherty, Professor Dame Margaret Whitehead, Professor Mark Petticrew, Professor Martin White, Kirk Allen, Dr Duncan Gillespie, Dr Maria Guzman-Castillo & Dr Piotr Bandosz
Who's involved: LiLaC, Fuse, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine & University of Sheffield
October 2012 - September 2015
Heart disease is still a major cause of disability and death, and it particularly affects people in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.
This research evaluated the potential of healthy food, tobacco control and physical activity to reduce social and economic differences in deaths from heart diseases. Firstly, researchers used a mortality forecasting method to look at the risk of dying by social class in the year 2030. The findings showed that although heart attack death rates will continue their long-term decline, this will happen more slowly in socially disadvantaged groups.
This highlights an important and urgent focus for population-wide prevention policies. The existing scientific evidence was reviewed by the researchers to explore which policies might work best to prevent premature heart disease deaths, and reduce inequalities.
The findings showed that interventions aiming to improve diet across the entire population tended to be more effective than those interventions focusing on individual behaviour change.
Computer modelling was used to combine the scientific evidence with the view of topic experts. Alongside this, the effect of different UK food strategies for the English population up to 2030 were calculated and compared.
The research found “upstream” policies and interventions aiming to benefit the entire population, (for instance by reducing salt or elimination industrial transfats) could have the greatest potential to reduce deaths, reduce inequalities and generate net savings that could be used by the NHS for other purposes.
SPHR final report: Addressing inequalities in chronic disease
C. Kypridemos, K. Allen, G Hickey, M.Guzman-Castillo, P Bandosz, I Buchan, S Capewell, M O’Flaherty. Is cardiovascular screening the best option for reducing future cardiovascular disease burden? A microsimulation study to quantify policy options. BMJ 2016 353:i2793.
Allen K, Kypridemos C, Hyseni L, Gilmore AB, Diggle P, Whitehead M, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. The effects of maximising the UK’s tobacco control score on inequalities in smoking prevalence and premature coronary heart disease mortality: a modelling study. BMC Public Health. 2016 16:292.
Allen K, Gillespie D O S, Guzman-Castillo M, Diggle P J, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. Future trends and inequalities in premature coronary deaths in England: Modelling study. International Journal of Cardiology 2015 15:203.
Allen K, Pearson-Stuttard J, Hooton W, Diggle P, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. Potential of trans-fats policies to reduce socio-economic inequalities in mortality from coronary heart disease in England: cost-effectiveness modelling study. BMJ 2015;351:h4583.
McGill R, Anwar E, Orton L, Bromley H, Lloyd-Williams F, O’Flaherty M, Taylor-Robinson D, Guzman-Castillo M, Gillespie D, Moreira P, Allen K, Hyseni L,Calder N, Petticrew M, White M, Whitehead M, Capewell S. Are interventions to promote healthy eating equally effective for all? Systematic review of socioeconomic inequalities in impact. BMC Public Health 2015 15:457.
Guzman-Castillo M, Ahmed R, Hawkins N, Scholes S, Wilkinson E, Lucy J, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study. BMJ Open, 2015;5:e006070.
Guzman Castillo M, Gillespie D, Allen K, Bandosz P, Schmid V, Capewell S O’Flaherty M. Predicting future Coronary Heart Disease mortality trends in England and Wales: a Bayesian
age period cohort forecast up to 2030. PlosOne 2014 9:6: e99482.
Gillespie D O S, Allen K, Guzman-Castillo M, Bandosz P, Moreira P, McGill R, Lloyd-Williams F, Bromley H, Diggle P, Capewell S, O’Flaherty M. The Health Equity And Effectiveness Of Policy Options To Reduce Dietary Salt Intake In England: Policy Forecast. PlosOne 2015 10:7:e0127927.
SPHR Public Health Evidence Briefing: Inequalities in chronic disease
SPHR project poster: Cardiovascular Disease modelling project