In this project SPHR researchers aimed to improve evidence on cardiovascular risk factors in later life to help people age well.
September 2013 - March 2017
Modelling cardiovascular disease and dementia in ageing population
Research Team: Dr Praveen Thokala, Dr Penny Breeze, Professor Alan Brennan, Professor David Melzer, Professor Carol Brayne, Dr Louise Lafortune, Professor Jonathan Mant, Professor Martin White & Professor Yoav Ben-Shlomo
Who's involved: University of Sheffield, University of Bristol, University of Cambridge, University of Sheffield & Fuse
April 2014 - March 2017
This project developed computer models to estimate the value for money of interventions for cardiovascular diseases and dementia, and the impact these interventions on healthcare demand.
For modelling the cardiovascular disease outcomes, the SPHR Diabetes prevention model is used, which is an individual patient level model developed to evaluate the value for money of a broad range of public health policies.
The progression of risk factors such as BMI, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, Total Cholesterol and HDL cholesterol over time were estimated from existing datasets. These risk factors information used describe individual patient’s risk of type 2 diabetes, microvascular outcomes, cardiovascular disease, congestive heart failure, cancer, osteoarthritis, depression and mortality. The model follows the patients until they die, estimating the impact of interventions on healthcare costs, clinical outcomes, and life expectancy.
A dementia computer model that can address incidence, diagnosis, and disease progression issues was also developed. Each patient is assumed to have a certain progression path in their metabolic risk factors as they age and this can be modified with pharmacological and lifestyle interventions. These are used to describe the probability of getting dementia, which is conditional on the individual characteristics of each subject in the model. This probability is used to determine if/when the individual is diagnosed with dementia. The dementia disease progression over time is also estimated to capture on healthcare costs, clinical outcomes, institutionalisation and life expectancy.
These two models are linked to form a single model to estimate the impact of different prevention policies on both cardiovascular and dementia outcomes in the United Kingdom. The framework can be used as a decision support tool to evaluate the value for money of different “healthy ageing” interventions.
SPHR Public Health Evidence Briefing: Ageing Well Programme